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BDA China 3G Market Forecasts: The New Landscape for 3G

Feb 06 2009
China's mobile market will surpass 1 billion subscriptions by 2013 with China Mobile holding 66% market share. Total mobile users will reach 1,040 million by 2013, with penetration reaching 76% of the total population. Mobile user growth will decline in 2009 due to the economic downturn but will rebound significantly thereafter driven by increased competition. 3G subscriptions will grow to 247 million in 2013 in China, representing 24% of the total mobile market. W-CDMA will have 142 million users by 2013, with 56 million for CDMA2000 EV-DO and 50 million for TD-SCDMA. In addition to asymmetric regulations, 3G will also help China Unicom and China Telecom to win share in the mobile market from 2010. MNP will help drive China Mobile's market share to fall by 5.1% in 2011. Carriers' strategies and equipment vendors: China Telecom is the most aggressive competing carrier. China Telecom will complete the 3G network in all cities by 2009, while China Unicom and China Mobile will do this by 2010. China Mobile has the strongest marketing and sales strategies; China Telecom offers appealing bundled packages to attract users. China Mobile holds advantages in WVAS development capabilities, that will help it take a strong position in the 3G WVAS market in the long term; China Telecom is catching up.China Mobile and China Telecom have announced aggressive handset subsidy strategies for 3G terminals, while China Unicom has yet to adopt a clear way forward. Huawei and ZTE account for 34% of China's 2G market; BDA expects this figure to increase to 49% in 3G, thanks to their low prices, competitive 3G products and government support. Ericsson turned out to be another winner in the W-CDMA market thanks to it also pursuing a low price strategy.

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BDA China 3G Market Forecasts: The New Landscape for 3G

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